{
  "$schema": "https://schema.org/",
  "@type": "Dataset",
  "publisher": "High Definition Learning Group",
  "title": "Bitcoin Halving Cycle Comparison — 12-Month Post-Halving Returns and Time-to-Peak",
  "updated": "2026-09-03",
  "note": "First-party dataset compiled by High Definition Learning Group. Halving-day and 12-months-later prices for Cycles 1-3, and the resulting return percentages, are as published by CoinGecko's own halving-cycle research (see sources.coingecko). Cycle 4's 12-month figure and every cycle's days-to-peak figure are computed by High Definition Learning Group from the individually cited public data points below — this specific four-cycle, consistent-methodology comparison (including the still-unfinished Cycle 4) does not exist elsewhere as a single table as of the update date above.",
  "methodology": "For each cycle: (1) price on the halving date, (2) price exactly 365 days later where available, (3) resulting percentage change, (4) the cycle's all-time-high price and date, and (5) days elapsed from halving to that peak. Cycle 4's 365-day price uses the closest reliably reported print to the 365-day mark (see per-row source note) rather than an exact-day figure, since no source publishes a precise April 20, 2025 close; this is disclosed per-row rather than smoothed over.",
  "cycles": [
    {
      "cycle": 1,
      "halving_date": "2012-11-28",
      "halving_price_usd": 12.31,
      "plus_365_days_date": "2013-11-28",
      "plus_365_days_price_usd": 1075,
      "return_pct_365d": 8858,
      "return_pct_source": "CoinGecko",
      "ath_price_usd": 1163,
      "ath_date": "2013-11-29",
      "days_halving_to_ath": 366,
      "sources": [
        { "name": "CoinGecko — Bitcoin Halving Price History", "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-halving-price-history", "used_for": "halving price, 365-day price, return_pct_365d" },
        { "name": "LedgerMind — Bitcoin Halving Dates", "url": "https://theledgermind.com/bitcoin-halving-dates/", "used_for": "halving_price_usd cross-check" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "cycle": 2,
      "halving_date": "2016-07-09",
      "halving_price_usd": 650.63,
      "plus_365_days_date": "2017-07-09",
      "plus_365_days_price_usd": 2560,
      "return_pct_365d": 294,
      "return_pct_source": "CoinGecko",
      "ath_price_usd": 19783,
      "ath_date": "2017-12-17",
      "days_halving_to_ath": 526,
      "sources": [
        { "name": "CoinGecko — Bitcoin Halving Price History", "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-halving-price-history", "used_for": "halving price, 365-day price, return_pct_365d" },
        { "name": "LedgerMind — Bitcoin Halving Dates", "url": "https://theledgermind.com/bitcoin-halving-dates/", "used_for": "halving_price_usd cross-check" },
        { "name": "Bitcoin Magazine — Bitcoin Price Hits All-Time High", "url": "https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-hits-all-time-high", "used_for": "ath_price_usd, ath_date (Bitstamp/Bitfinex December 2017 prints)" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "cycle": 3,
      "halving_date": "2020-05-11",
      "halving_price_usd": 8787,
      "plus_365_days_date": "2021-05-11",
      "plus_365_days_price_usd": 55847,
      "return_pct_365d": 540,
      "return_pct_source": "CoinGecko",
      "ath_price_usd": 67617,
      "ath_date": "2021-11-09",
      "days_halving_to_ath": 547,
      "sources": [
        { "name": "CoinGecko — Bitcoin Halving Price History", "url": "https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-halving-price-history", "used_for": "halving price, 365-day price, return_pct_365d" },
        { "name": "LedgerMind — Bitcoin Halving Dates", "url": "https://theledgermind.com/bitcoin-halving-dates/", "used_for": "halving_price_usd cross-check" },
        { "name": "GlobalData — Bitcoin's Price History", "url": "https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/bitcoins-price-history/", "used_for": "ath_price_usd, ath_date" }
      ]
    },
    {
      "cycle": 4,
      "halving_date": "2024-04-20",
      "halving_price_usd": 64100,
      "plus_365_days_date": "2025-04-20",
      "plus_365_days_price_usd": 83103,
      "plus_365_days_note": "No source publishes an exact April 20, 2025 close. Figure used is Statista's reported close for April 3, 2025 ($83,102.83) — 17 days short of the true 365-day mark — as the closest reliably sourced print available. Treat this cycle's return figure as approximate, unlike Cycles 1-3.",
      "return_pct_365d": 30,
      "return_pct_source": "Computed by High Definition Learning Group from Statista pricing data (see plus_365_days_note)",
      "ath_price_usd": 124774,
      "ath_date": "2025-10-06",
      "days_halving_to_ath": 534,
      "sources": [
        { "name": "LedgerMind — Bitcoin Halving Dates", "url": "https://theledgermind.com/bitcoin-halving-dates/", "used_for": "halving_price_usd" },
        { "name": "Statista — Bitcoin BTC/USD Price History", "url": "https://es.statista.com/statistics/787379/bitcoin-price-index-euro", "used_for": "plus_365_days_price_usd (proxy date, see note)" },
        { "name": "Btbjb — Bitcoin Halving Countdown, Charts & Data", "url": "https://www.btbjb.com/en/", "used_for": "ath_price_usd, ath_date" }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "headline_findings": [
    "12-month post-halving returns have declined every cycle: +8,858% (2012), +294% (2016), +540% (2020), and an approximate +30% for the still-recent 2024 cycle — each successive cycle starts from a much larger base, so the same dollar demand moves the price a smaller percentage.",
    "Time-to-peak has stabilized: Cycles 2-4 all peaked 526-547 days after their halving (a ~3-week spread), versus Cycle 1's much faster 366-day peak when the market was younger and thinner.",
    "Cycle 4's approximate +30% one-year return is the lowest of the four cycles by a wide margin, consistent with a maturing, higher-market-cap asset — though the underlying price data point is a same-week proxy rather than the exact 365-day print, and is flagged as such above."
  ],
  "license": "https://highdefinitionlearning.pages.dev/ai-usage-terms.txt",
  "disclaimer": "Historical data compiled for informational and educational purposes. Not investment advice. Past cycle behavior does not predict future price movement."
}